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The Investing Podcast

Tusk Media

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The Investing Podcast
12 MIN2016 OCT 26
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Senior Equity Analyst Ben Nye modifies his internal Boeing (BA) thesis in today’s earnings preview for the aerospace giant. Together with Vice President Andrew Hall, the pair embark on a wide-ranging big picture discussion of Boeing, the company, and Boeing, the stock. The discussion begins with commentary on the revenue composition at BA. Over the past 15 years, an underreported story has been that the vast majority of the 65% top-line growth has been generated away from the United States (source: Company filings). Therefore, in projecting future revenue growth for the company as a whole, one should have a view (positive or negative ) of the revenue growth in Asia and the Middle East. Next, Ben demonstrates how backlog has begun to decline as orders have dried up and the company has begun to execute against the backlog. This raises some interesting accounting questions: how profitable will the new 787 program be? Will earnings grow in accordance with Wall Street analyst estimates? Will margins improve if Boeing cuts back the production rate of its widebody aircraft? How will the business’s narrow margins fare if top line growth slows? Will BA take a big loss on its 787 program? These are all questions that will, in all likelihood, not be answered in the third quarter earnings results release. But Boeing prognosticators will be looking for the answers; the job of the analyst is to figure out what the long-term earnings power of the business truly is and how the results change the probability of the earnings scenarios. Our view is that Boeing (BA) is now in a time period with weaker order growth. This means that Seattle’s aerospace company needs to drive production and margin in order to realize the lofty Street analyst expectations. Today’s piece on BA is part of a series of earnings previews we are unveiling in late October. We will be releasing a series of these preview videos in the coming days so please let us know if there is a stock you would like us to cover. Follow us on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/TuskMediaLLCCheck out our video archive: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCT1iK2MbBjXGCyni_CKxB9Q