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Claret Quarterly Comments

Claret

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Claret Quarterly Comments

Claret Quarterly Comments

Claret

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Claret quarterly comments on current events and various topics in investment management.

Latest Episodes

Reasons to own equities over the long-term, regardless of their inherent volatility

After a drastic drop that lasted the first 15 days of the quarter, the S& 500 basically has recovered to finish the quarter flat. However, due to the rebound of the Loonie, the S& 500 has posted a loss of 5% in Canadian dollar terms. The S&/TSX fared better, moving up 3% thanks to a rebound on energy and mining sectors. European markets were weak in general, whether currency adjusted or not.

7 min2016 APR 16
Comments
Reasons to own equities over the long-term, regardless of their inherent volatility

To avoid getting seasick, keep your eyes looking on the horizon

2015 has not been a good year for stock pickers in general, and especially for the ones who favor the value investing philosophy. As an example, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway was down 12.5% (in USD terms). In fact, it is the tale of 2 stories:

9 min2016 JAN 19
Comments
To avoid getting seasick, keep your eyes looking on the horizon

Forecasting…Do you actually need it to be successful?

The third quarter was quite brutal for the stock markets around the world. Most indices were down double digits, oil prices hit the high 30s and the global economy seems to be slowing down. Most blame the Chinese economic slowdown and its possible contagion throughout Asia. Others blame the Yuan depreciation and the threat of competitive devaluation. Whatever the reasons, we think it is just a normal adjustment (we would say a correction) after 6 years of bull markets with 1 or 2 minor corrections. The US economy seems to be humming along with the unemployment rate at a low 5%. China, despite a slowdown, is still growing at somewhere between 4 and 5%. The most important aspect of the Chinese economy is that it is moving slowly away from an export-based manufacturing economy towards a consumer-based one. The main consequences are lower demand for commodities which impact economies like ours and Australia. However, low commodities prices have always done more good than harm to global ...

10 min2015 OCT 21
Comments
Forecasting…Do you actually need it to be successful?

All you wanted to know about risk but were afraid to ask

Stock markets have been relatively flat over the last three months. The biggest news maker is obviously Greece. Being crushed under a humongous debt load of 451 Billion Euros owed to its Euro-zone partners, the Greek government decided to call a referendum so its people can decide whether to pay its creditors back. Surprise! They decided not to. Surprise again! They have done it 5 times since Greece’s independence 187 odd years ago. In fact, Greece has spent approximately half of those 187 years since it achieved independence from the Ottoman Empire in a state of default and therefore denied access to international capital markets – a position it is likely to resume in the very near future.

11 min2015 JUL 22
Comments
All you wanted to know about risk but were afraid to ask

Staying the course – one investment at a time

We thought that you might want to know how we stand over the long term after such a long period of stock market advances without any major correction (since 2009 low, the S&P 500 only had 2 “noticeable” corrections that are over 15%: one in 2010 – 17% -- and the other one in 2011 – 21.6%). We qualified as “noticeable” by the number of phone calls we received asking us whether the correction was serious enough to warrant caution. So here is an update of the chart we published in the 3rd quarter of 2013:

5 min2015 APR 21
Comments
Staying the course – one investment at a time

Quotes for thought for year-end reading

As we write this 4th quarterly comment, we can’t help but think about how lucky we were for last year’s performance, especially after a great 2013. It would be nice if, as they say in French: “jamais deux sans trois”….

9 min2015 JAN 21
Comments
Quotes for thought for year-end reading

Let discipline guide you through the market’s ebbs and flows, not headlines

Although stock markets around the world were more volatile at the end of the 3rd quarter, most of the damage was done to the cyclical and small cap sectors of the markets, as can be seen in the following table:

9 min2014 OCT 18
Comments
Let discipline guide you through the market’s ebbs and flows, not headlines

Living on Savings: three scenarios, one conclusion

Stock markets worldwide continued to advance during the second quarter: the US market moved up another 4% or so while the Canadian market added 3%. As the saying goes, bull markets climb walls of worry. Can this be more accurate, especially when you read the newspapers littered with bad news, listen to stock market gurus who predict all kinds of bad outcomes? Although we do not know whether all these forecasts would turn out to be true, we prefer sticking with our quantitative and disciplined approach that identifies opportunities one company at a time.

9 min2014 JUL 19
Comments
Living on Savings: three scenarios, one conclusion

Stock markets now at historical valuations

Overall stock market indices keep marching on after a wonderful year in 2013 and delivered roughly a 5% increase for the first quarter (in CAD). As a reminder, March 2014 is the five-year anniversary of the February 2009 market bottom.

5 min2014 APR 15
Comments
Stock markets now at historical valuations

What a year! Sometimes a little luck helps…

WHAT A YEAR! Dividends included, the US market went up 32%, the euro index went up 22.5% and the Tokyo market went up 54% (although 26% in USD). The emerging markets in general have not done as well though (some markets are actually down for the year). Many economists were surprised by the strength of stock markets around the world, considering the anemic growth exhibited by some major economies. This brings up an interesting question: do stock markets predict the economy or is it the other way around? While economists used to comment ironically that “the stock market has predicted 7 of the last 5 recessions”, we’d like to point out that economists have predicted none… or almost! The bottom line is: if you are in the forecasting business, make sure you forecast often…

8 min2014 JAN 22
Comments
What a year! Sometimes a little luck helps…

Latest Episodes

Reasons to own equities over the long-term, regardless of their inherent volatility

After a drastic drop that lasted the first 15 days of the quarter, the S& 500 basically has recovered to finish the quarter flat. However, due to the rebound of the Loonie, the S& 500 has posted a loss of 5% in Canadian dollar terms. The S&/TSX fared better, moving up 3% thanks to a rebound on energy and mining sectors. European markets were weak in general, whether currency adjusted or not.

7 min2016 APR 16
Comments
Reasons to own equities over the long-term, regardless of their inherent volatility

To avoid getting seasick, keep your eyes looking on the horizon

2015 has not been a good year for stock pickers in general, and especially for the ones who favor the value investing philosophy. As an example, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway was down 12.5% (in USD terms). In fact, it is the tale of 2 stories:

9 min2016 JAN 19
Comments
To avoid getting seasick, keep your eyes looking on the horizon

Forecasting…Do you actually need it to be successful?

The third quarter was quite brutal for the stock markets around the world. Most indices were down double digits, oil prices hit the high 30s and the global economy seems to be slowing down. Most blame the Chinese economic slowdown and its possible contagion throughout Asia. Others blame the Yuan depreciation and the threat of competitive devaluation. Whatever the reasons, we think it is just a normal adjustment (we would say a correction) after 6 years of bull markets with 1 or 2 minor corrections. The US economy seems to be humming along with the unemployment rate at a low 5%. China, despite a slowdown, is still growing at somewhere between 4 and 5%. The most important aspect of the Chinese economy is that it is moving slowly away from an export-based manufacturing economy towards a consumer-based one. The main consequences are lower demand for commodities which impact economies like ours and Australia. However, low commodities prices have always done more good than harm to global ...

10 min2015 OCT 21
Comments
Forecasting…Do you actually need it to be successful?

All you wanted to know about risk but were afraid to ask

Stock markets have been relatively flat over the last three months. The biggest news maker is obviously Greece. Being crushed under a humongous debt load of 451 Billion Euros owed to its Euro-zone partners, the Greek government decided to call a referendum so its people can decide whether to pay its creditors back. Surprise! They decided not to. Surprise again! They have done it 5 times since Greece’s independence 187 odd years ago. In fact, Greece has spent approximately half of those 187 years since it achieved independence from the Ottoman Empire in a state of default and therefore denied access to international capital markets – a position it is likely to resume in the very near future.

11 min2015 JUL 22
Comments
All you wanted to know about risk but were afraid to ask

Staying the course – one investment at a time

We thought that you might want to know how we stand over the long term after such a long period of stock market advances without any major correction (since 2009 low, the S&P 500 only had 2 “noticeable” corrections that are over 15%: one in 2010 – 17% -- and the other one in 2011 – 21.6%). We qualified as “noticeable” by the number of phone calls we received asking us whether the correction was serious enough to warrant caution. So here is an update of the chart we published in the 3rd quarter of 2013:

5 min2015 APR 21
Comments
Staying the course – one investment at a time

Quotes for thought for year-end reading

As we write this 4th quarterly comment, we can’t help but think about how lucky we were for last year’s performance, especially after a great 2013. It would be nice if, as they say in French: “jamais deux sans trois”….

9 min2015 JAN 21
Comments
Quotes for thought for year-end reading

Let discipline guide you through the market’s ebbs and flows, not headlines

Although stock markets around the world were more volatile at the end of the 3rd quarter, most of the damage was done to the cyclical and small cap sectors of the markets, as can be seen in the following table:

9 min2014 OCT 18
Comments
Let discipline guide you through the market’s ebbs and flows, not headlines

Living on Savings: three scenarios, one conclusion

Stock markets worldwide continued to advance during the second quarter: the US market moved up another 4% or so while the Canadian market added 3%. As the saying goes, bull markets climb walls of worry. Can this be more accurate, especially when you read the newspapers littered with bad news, listen to stock market gurus who predict all kinds of bad outcomes? Although we do not know whether all these forecasts would turn out to be true, we prefer sticking with our quantitative and disciplined approach that identifies opportunities one company at a time.

9 min2014 JUL 19
Comments
Living on Savings: three scenarios, one conclusion

Stock markets now at historical valuations

Overall stock market indices keep marching on after a wonderful year in 2013 and delivered roughly a 5% increase for the first quarter (in CAD). As a reminder, March 2014 is the five-year anniversary of the February 2009 market bottom.

5 min2014 APR 15
Comments
Stock markets now at historical valuations

What a year! Sometimes a little luck helps…

WHAT A YEAR! Dividends included, the US market went up 32%, the euro index went up 22.5% and the Tokyo market went up 54% (although 26% in USD). The emerging markets in general have not done as well though (some markets are actually down for the year). Many economists were surprised by the strength of stock markets around the world, considering the anemic growth exhibited by some major economies. This brings up an interesting question: do stock markets predict the economy or is it the other way around? While economists used to comment ironically that “the stock market has predicted 7 of the last 5 recessions”, we’d like to point out that economists have predicted none… or almost! The bottom line is: if you are in the forecasting business, make sure you forecast often…

8 min2014 JAN 22
Comments
What a year! Sometimes a little luck helps…
success toast
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