title

Trade Talks

Soumaya Keynes & Chad P. Bown

72
Followers
211
Plays
Trade Talks

Trade Talks

Soumaya Keynes & Chad P. Bown

72
Followers
211
Plays
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About Us

Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) and Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) cohost a podcast about the economics of international trade and policy. From trade wars to trade deals, this podcast covers trade developments with insights and economic analysis from two of the world's top trade geeks.

Latest Episodes

121. Can Infant Industry Protection Work? Evidence from Napoleon

The Napoleonic Blockade offered an opportunity for economists to see whether temporary protection from imports can help industrial development. Réka Juhász (Columbia University) joins to discuss her research into whether French regions better protected from trade with the British during the Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815) did better in mechanized cotton spinning – the era’s frontier industry – than more exposed regions. Read more… Réka Juhász. 2018. Temporary Protection and Technology Adoption: Evidence from the Napoleonic Blockade. American Economic Review.

24 MIN1 w ago
Comments
121. Can Infant Industry Protection Work? Evidence from Napoleon

120. Extreme Trade: The Rise and Fall of Glasgow’s Shipbuilding

What is the Glasgow effect? Richard Davies explains, and tells the gripping economic story of how shipbuilding drove the Scottish city’s boom and bust. Drawn from his new book Extreme Economies (Farrar, Straus and Giroux 2020), they begin by describing how the economic forces of Marshallian externalities led to the rise of Glaswegian shipbuilding on the River Clyde. They then turn to its tragic downfall, its economic and social policy failures, and the extremely low life expectancy plaguing Glasgow to this day.

37 MIN3 w ago
Comments
120. Extreme Trade: The Rise and Fall of Glasgow’s Shipbuilding

119. Stock Markets, the Economy, and Trump’s Trade Policy Uncertainty

Nick Bloom (Stanford University) joins to discuss the increase in trade policy uncertainty under President Trump and implications for investment and economic growth. They describe new ways of measuring policy uncertainty – including the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, as well as surveys – and recent evidence of its impact, including on the US stock market. Read more… Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steve Davis. 2016. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty, Quarterly Journal of Economics.Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steve Davis. 2019. The extraordinary rise in trade policy uncertainty, VoxEU.org, September 19. Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon. 2019. What Triggers Stock Market Jumps? Stanford University manuscript.

24 MIN3 w ago
Comments
119. Stock Markets, the Economy, and Trump’s Trade Policy Uncertainty

118. Ins and Outs of the US-China Phase-One Trade Deal

Two former USTR negotiators join to explain the details of the new US-China trade agreement. Agriculture negotiator Darci Vetter (Edelman, 3:50) describes China’s new commitments toward US farm products, and foreign investment negotiator Lauren Mandell (WilmerHale, 18:30) explains changes to China’s legal system, protection of intellectual property, as well as the agreement’s dispute settlement provisions. Finally, we get the reaction of the business community (33:00) before Simon Rabinovitch (The Economist, 37:15) joins to provide the perspective from China. Episode Transcript [PDF] Read more… Soumaya Keynes. 2020. The new US-China trade deal marks an uneasy truce. The Economist, January 16. Soumaya Keynes. 2020. Free Exchange: The costs of America’s lurch towards managed trade. The Economist, January 25. Chad P. Bown. 2020. Unappreciated Hazards of the US-China Phase One Deal. PIIE Trade and Investment Policy Watch, January 21.Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Governme...

44 MINJAN 19
Comments
118. Ins and Outs of the US-China Phase-One Trade Deal

117. Trump’s Import Tariffs Have Hurt US Exports

New evidence reveals a side effect of President Trump’s import tariffs. The research shows that, through US supply chain linkages, the new US tariffs on imported inputs are directly contributing to the recent slowdown in US exports of outputs. Kyle Handley (University of Michigan) joins to discuss the potential causes and consequences of these results. Read more… Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch. 2020. Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism. NBER Working Paper No. 26611, January.

21 MINJAN 9
Comments
117. Trump’s Import Tariffs Have Hurt US Exports

116. Fish Subsidies. What’s the Catch?

The WTO is failing to meet a 2020 deadline set by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals to negotiate limits to fisheries subsidies. To figure out why, we went to Geneva and spoke with Alice Tipping (International Institute for Sustainable Development) and Mukesh Bhatnagar (Centre for WTO Studies). We describe difficulties on getting a deal to restrain subsidies which lead to overcapacity and overfishing, as well as eliminating subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. Read more… Basak Bayramoglu, Brian Copeland, Marco Fugazza, Jean-François Jacques. 2019. Trade and negotiations on fisheries subsidies. VoxEU.org, 21 October.FAO. 2018. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 2018. Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations, Rome.Marco Fugazza and Tansung Ok. 2019. Fish and fisheries products: From subsidies to non-tariff measures. UNCTAD Research Paper Series, UNCTAD, Geneva.Enric Sala, Juan Mayorg, Christopher Costello, David Kro...

28 MIN2019 DEC 30
Comments
116. Fish Subsidies. What’s the Catch?

115. The Trade War and US Elections

Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 elections for the US House of Representatives. Emily Blanchard (Tuck School of Business) joins to discuss new research that investigates how Trump’s trade war affected the 2018 election. The evidence suggests the combination of the trade war and attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act may have cost the Republicans as many as 15 House seats. Read more… Blanchard, Emily J., Chad P. Bown, and Davin Chor. 2019. Trump’s trade war cost Republicans congressional seats in the 2018 midterm elections. VoxEU.org, 26 November.Blanchard, Emily J., Chad P. Bown, and Davin Chor. 2019. Did Trump’s Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? Working Paper, November.

21 MIN2019 DEC 20
Comments
115. The Trade War and US Elections

114: US and China Announce a Phase-One Deal

Trump’s US Trade Representative provides a fact sheet and more detail on the first stage of the deal announced December 13 to address the administration’s trade war with China. The fact sheet previews an eventual 86 page legal agreement that would include additional Chinese commitments on intellectual property rights protection, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency, dispute resolution, and expanding trade. Bown and Keynes also discuss what the Trump administration has agreed to do with all of the new tariffs it has imposed on China, as well as what is not in the phase one deal. Read more… Soumaya Keynes. 2019.America and China reach a “phase one” trade deal. The Economist, 14 December.Chad P. Bown, 2019. Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal. Peterson Institute for International Economics Trade and Investment Policy Watch Blog, 19 December.Chad P. Bown. 2019. US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart. Peterson Institute for Inter...

19 MIN2019 DEC 16
Comments
114: US and China Announce a Phase-One Deal

113: How and Why Congressional Democrats Tweaked the USMCA

USMCA gets one step closer after Congressional Democrats, organized labor, the Trump administration, and Mexico strike a deal. Megan Cassella (Politico, 2:18) explains how the four-way negotiations led to the December 10 announcement of additional tweaks to the new North American trade agreement, including on biologics. Simon Lester (Cato Institute, 14:13) and Kathleen Claussen (University of Miami, 20:00) also join to discuss changes to dispute settlement, and the enforcement of rules regarding labor. Read more… Soumaya Keynes. 2019. The revised USMCA pleases both Democrats and Donald Trump. The Economist, 12 December.

36 MIN2019 DEC 15
Comments
113: How and Why Congressional Democrats Tweaked the USMCA

112: Forensic Subsidies Detectives and Trade Disputes

Government subsidies are a key battle area in today’s trade disputes between countries, including the US and China. But finding and measuring those subsidies is increasingly hard. Ken Ash uses the aluminum sector to describe the OECD’s new approach to tracking them down. He also previews a new OECD report on subsidies to semiconductors, and the role of government-sponsored equity injections. Read more… OECD. 2019. Measuring distortions in international markets: the aluminium value chain. OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 218, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/c82911ab-en

-1 s2019 DEC 9
Comments
112: Forensic Subsidies Detectives and Trade Disputes

Latest Episodes

121. Can Infant Industry Protection Work? Evidence from Napoleon

The Napoleonic Blockade offered an opportunity for economists to see whether temporary protection from imports can help industrial development. Réka Juhász (Columbia University) joins to discuss her research into whether French regions better protected from trade with the British during the Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815) did better in mechanized cotton spinning – the era’s frontier industry – than more exposed regions. Read more… Réka Juhász. 2018. Temporary Protection and Technology Adoption: Evidence from the Napoleonic Blockade. American Economic Review.

24 MIN1 w ago
Comments
121. Can Infant Industry Protection Work? Evidence from Napoleon

120. Extreme Trade: The Rise and Fall of Glasgow’s Shipbuilding

What is the Glasgow effect? Richard Davies explains, and tells the gripping economic story of how shipbuilding drove the Scottish city’s boom and bust. Drawn from his new book Extreme Economies (Farrar, Straus and Giroux 2020), they begin by describing how the economic forces of Marshallian externalities led to the rise of Glaswegian shipbuilding on the River Clyde. They then turn to its tragic downfall, its economic and social policy failures, and the extremely low life expectancy plaguing Glasgow to this day.

37 MIN3 w ago
Comments
120. Extreme Trade: The Rise and Fall of Glasgow’s Shipbuilding

119. Stock Markets, the Economy, and Trump’s Trade Policy Uncertainty

Nick Bloom (Stanford University) joins to discuss the increase in trade policy uncertainty under President Trump and implications for investment and economic growth. They describe new ways of measuring policy uncertainty – including the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, as well as surveys – and recent evidence of its impact, including on the US stock market. Read more… Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steve Davis. 2016. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty, Quarterly Journal of Economics.Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steve Davis. 2019. The extraordinary rise in trade policy uncertainty, VoxEU.org, September 19. Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon. 2019. What Triggers Stock Market Jumps? Stanford University manuscript.

24 MIN3 w ago
Comments
119. Stock Markets, the Economy, and Trump’s Trade Policy Uncertainty

118. Ins and Outs of the US-China Phase-One Trade Deal

Two former USTR negotiators join to explain the details of the new US-China trade agreement. Agriculture negotiator Darci Vetter (Edelman, 3:50) describes China’s new commitments toward US farm products, and foreign investment negotiator Lauren Mandell (WilmerHale, 18:30) explains changes to China’s legal system, protection of intellectual property, as well as the agreement’s dispute settlement provisions. Finally, we get the reaction of the business community (33:00) before Simon Rabinovitch (The Economist, 37:15) joins to provide the perspective from China. Episode Transcript [PDF] Read more… Soumaya Keynes. 2020. The new US-China trade deal marks an uneasy truce. The Economist, January 16. Soumaya Keynes. 2020. Free Exchange: The costs of America’s lurch towards managed trade. The Economist, January 25. Chad P. Bown. 2020. Unappreciated Hazards of the US-China Phase One Deal. PIIE Trade and Investment Policy Watch, January 21.Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Governme...

44 MINJAN 19
Comments
118. Ins and Outs of the US-China Phase-One Trade Deal

117. Trump’s Import Tariffs Have Hurt US Exports

New evidence reveals a side effect of President Trump’s import tariffs. The research shows that, through US supply chain linkages, the new US tariffs on imported inputs are directly contributing to the recent slowdown in US exports of outputs. Kyle Handley (University of Michigan) joins to discuss the potential causes and consequences of these results. Read more… Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch. 2020. Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism. NBER Working Paper No. 26611, January.

21 MINJAN 9
Comments
117. Trump’s Import Tariffs Have Hurt US Exports

116. Fish Subsidies. What’s the Catch?

The WTO is failing to meet a 2020 deadline set by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals to negotiate limits to fisheries subsidies. To figure out why, we went to Geneva and spoke with Alice Tipping (International Institute for Sustainable Development) and Mukesh Bhatnagar (Centre for WTO Studies). We describe difficulties on getting a deal to restrain subsidies which lead to overcapacity and overfishing, as well as eliminating subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. Read more… Basak Bayramoglu, Brian Copeland, Marco Fugazza, Jean-François Jacques. 2019. Trade and negotiations on fisheries subsidies. VoxEU.org, 21 October.FAO. 2018. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 2018. Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations, Rome.Marco Fugazza and Tansung Ok. 2019. Fish and fisheries products: From subsidies to non-tariff measures. UNCTAD Research Paper Series, UNCTAD, Geneva.Enric Sala, Juan Mayorg, Christopher Costello, David Kro...

28 MIN2019 DEC 30
Comments
116. Fish Subsidies. What’s the Catch?

115. The Trade War and US Elections

Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 elections for the US House of Representatives. Emily Blanchard (Tuck School of Business) joins to discuss new research that investigates how Trump’s trade war affected the 2018 election. The evidence suggests the combination of the trade war and attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act may have cost the Republicans as many as 15 House seats. Read more… Blanchard, Emily J., Chad P. Bown, and Davin Chor. 2019. Trump’s trade war cost Republicans congressional seats in the 2018 midterm elections. VoxEU.org, 26 November.Blanchard, Emily J., Chad P. Bown, and Davin Chor. 2019. Did Trump’s Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? Working Paper, November.

21 MIN2019 DEC 20
Comments
115. The Trade War and US Elections

114: US and China Announce a Phase-One Deal

Trump’s US Trade Representative provides a fact sheet and more detail on the first stage of the deal announced December 13 to address the administration’s trade war with China. The fact sheet previews an eventual 86 page legal agreement that would include additional Chinese commitments on intellectual property rights protection, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency, dispute resolution, and expanding trade. Bown and Keynes also discuss what the Trump administration has agreed to do with all of the new tariffs it has imposed on China, as well as what is not in the phase one deal. Read more… Soumaya Keynes. 2019.America and China reach a “phase one” trade deal. The Economist, 14 December.Chad P. Bown, 2019. Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal. Peterson Institute for International Economics Trade and Investment Policy Watch Blog, 19 December.Chad P. Bown. 2019. US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart. Peterson Institute for Inter...

19 MIN2019 DEC 16
Comments
114: US and China Announce a Phase-One Deal

113: How and Why Congressional Democrats Tweaked the USMCA

USMCA gets one step closer after Congressional Democrats, organized labor, the Trump administration, and Mexico strike a deal. Megan Cassella (Politico, 2:18) explains how the four-way negotiations led to the December 10 announcement of additional tweaks to the new North American trade agreement, including on biologics. Simon Lester (Cato Institute, 14:13) and Kathleen Claussen (University of Miami, 20:00) also join to discuss changes to dispute settlement, and the enforcement of rules regarding labor. Read more… Soumaya Keynes. 2019. The revised USMCA pleases both Democrats and Donald Trump. The Economist, 12 December.

36 MIN2019 DEC 15
Comments
113: How and Why Congressional Democrats Tweaked the USMCA

112: Forensic Subsidies Detectives and Trade Disputes

Government subsidies are a key battle area in today’s trade disputes between countries, including the US and China. But finding and measuring those subsidies is increasingly hard. Ken Ash uses the aluminum sector to describe the OECD’s new approach to tracking them down. He also previews a new OECD report on subsidies to semiconductors, and the role of government-sponsored equity injections. Read more… OECD. 2019. Measuring distortions in international markets: the aluminium value chain. OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 218, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/c82911ab-en

-1 s2019 DEC 9
Comments
112: Forensic Subsidies Detectives and Trade Disputes
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