钱克锦看天下

钱克锦看天下

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Overview
himalaya
475 Episodes
了解世界,可以更好地了解中国。
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Episodes
475 Episodes

虽然联合国安理会通过决议,要求分三步走实现加沙和平,但目前无论是以色列,还是哈马斯,都认为自己可以继续坚持。所以和平谈判可能不会有真正结果。

弗雷泽里克森这次遇袭,虽然没有受伤,但还是引起欧洲的一些警惕。原因有二:一,目前欧洲正在进行欧洲议会选举,极端思潮势力比较大;二,欧洲最近出了几起政治暴力事件。

这次印度选举,印度人民党和莫迪虽然是“虽胜犹败”,但他还是可以继续连任,成为尼赫鲁之后第一人。莫迪的成功秘诀有三个:一,带有宗教色彩的民族主义;二,抓住经济发展的机遇;三,成功打造个人魅力。

亨特·拜登非法持有枪支案开审。分析一般认为他被判入狱的可能性不大,但是这起案件,以及定于9月份审理的另一起有关税收的案件,审理时间都里大选投票日不远,如果审理期间有猛料爆出,可能对拜登选情产生致命影响。

特朗普被陪审团裁定有罪之后,不会影响他参选总统,他也不太可能被判入监,而且即便被判入监,他也会上诉。在接受采访时,特朗普说自己愿意接受结果,其实是暗含威胁、以退为进的一种策略。

以色列议会初步通过法案(生效还需要三读程序),拟将联合国近东巴勒斯坦难民救济工程处定性为恐怖组织。以色列历来对此机构不满,原因有三:一,认为该机构在加沙设立的学校,有反犹宣传;二,认为该机构和哈马斯有合作;三,认为该机构存在,从长远看,对以色列有威胁。

韩国和朝鲜之间经常进行“空投战”。韩国一些团体向朝鲜空投政治传单和一些反映韩国生活的资料。朝鲜对此不满,也经常报复。不过像这次这样大规模行动,还不多见。

内塔尼亚胡目前进退两难。继续打,一方面无法彻底清除哈马斯,另一方面国际社会压力太大;接受哈马斯释放人质的条件,不仅显得“功亏一篑”,而且也可能导致自己政府倒台。

巴勒斯坦要想真正建国,有三个问题需要解决:一,巴解组织和哈马斯之间的矛盾;二,巴勒斯坦地区领土、边境、居民、财政、安全等实际状况;三,争取成为联合国正式会员国。

国际刑事法院可能会发出针对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和哈马斯领导人的逮捕令,以色列和美国都反对,特别强调把以色列和哈马斯“相提并论”不可接受;而哈马斯也反对,认为自己是抵抗侵略。只有一些关心人道主义、关心人权的国际组织支持国际刑事法院的做法。

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