J.P. Morgan Chief US Economist Mike Feroli joins interest rate strategists Jay Barry and Alex Roever to discuss the pros & cons of a 100bp hike to the Fed funds target rate at the July meeting. They also discuss curve inversion and the current state of treasury market liquidity. Speakers: Alex Roever, US Rates Strategy Michael Feroli, Economic and Policy Research Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tracey Allen and Ruhani Aggarwal discuss the outlook for agri markets after the collapse in prices in June and July. The confluence of macro headwinds from decadal highs in the US dollar, rising recessionary risks and fears of a return to COVID lockdowns in China, to sharp losses across crude oil markets have continued to override ags markets fundamentals and associated weather-related production threats this week. Material progress towards mobilizing the grain and oilseeds stored at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports appears to have been made during discussions between military delegations from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations on Wednesday in Istanbul. This apparent agreement is not an indication of a normalization in Ukrainian export flows but certainly a step in the right direction for global food supplies. Speakers Tracey Allen, Head of Agriculture Research, J.P. Morgan Ruhani Aggarwal, Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4146561-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4145982-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Greg Fuzesi, Aditya Chordia and Meera Chandan from the J.P. Morgan economics, rates and FX team discuss the outlook for Eurozone in their baseline and stress scenarios. Downside growth risks over 2H22 are building owing to elevated gas prices and risks to supply. The ECB would likely focus on high inflation at first and low growth later. EUR/USD forecast has been marked down to 0.95 from parity. Enter long 5Y Germany vs. US and turn tactically underweight periphery via short 10Y Italy vs. Germany on expectation that the market would continue testing the ECB. This podcast was recorded on 12th July 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141167-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4141656-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4139679-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva discusses J.P. Morgan’s baseline view on global oil markets and associated risks. We expect Russian exports will adjust towards other buyers without a serious disruption to its production. This, combined with the 1.2 mbd monthly drawdown of global strategic petroleum reserves and demand beginning to falter amid record-high oil product prices are sufficient to prompt a fragile balance and stabilize the global oil price in the low $100s in 2H22 and high $90s in 2023. Macro risks are becoming more two-sided. A 3 mbd retaliatory reduction in Russian oil exports is a credible threat and if realized will drive Brent crude oil prices to roughly $190/bbl. On the other hand, the impact of substantially lower demand growth under recessionary scenarios would see Brent crude oil price averaging around $90/bbl under a mild recession and $78/bbl under a scenario of a more severe downturn. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research This podcast was recorde...
Featured in this podcast are Tohru Sasaki, Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil, Takafumi Yamawaki and Rie Nishihara Developments in Japan’s economy and markets, including inflation, the BoJ’s monetary policy, government bonds (JGB) and currency (JPY) markets are obviously unique and different from those in the rest of the world. In this podcast, we would like to share our latest views across asset classes. This podcast was recorded on Jul 7, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4130528-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4132824-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4137092-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4134898-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4129712-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Anatoliy Shal, JPM’s Chief Russia Economist, to discuss the potential impact of the new set of goals set out by the G-7 to cut Moscow’s revenues. The G7 announced a potential cap on prices of Russian oil and an import ban of Russian gold. Given Russia’s strong fiscal position thanks to higher energy prices and lower imports in the wake of western sanctions, the country can cut up to 5 mbd of production without excessively hurting its economic interest, all the while driving global oil prices to stratospheric $380/bbl. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Anatoliy Shal, Chief Russia Economist This podcast was recorded on July 1, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4135652-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
J.P. Morgan US interest rate strategists Srini Ramaswamy, Teresa Ho and Alex Roever are joined by economist Michael Feroli to discuss QT (quantitative tightening) and its impact on banks and money markets. This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss the implications of Biden administration’s proposed federal gas tax holiday. As millions of Americans prepare for summertime driving, including over next month’s July Fourth holiday, the Biden administration continues to look for ways to ease record fuel prices. Cutting fuel taxes, changing blending requirements, and capping gasoline exports could each provide some temporary relief to US consumers, yet, until supply-side issues—namely, an acute shortage of refining capacity—are addressed, most measures intended to reduce the price of gasoline will instead likely encourage Americans to drive more, in turn leading to higher gasoline demand and yet higher gasoline prices. The reality is that, with demand stimulated and supply constrained, fuel prices won’t drop until demand does. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4127358-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4114639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this podcast we discuss our medium term views on Euro area inflation, its impact on ECB delivery. We also discuss our main trading themes on the German curve, intra-EMU spreads, money market/swap curve, swap spreads, and rates volatility. Speakers Fabio Bassi, Head of European Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist Francis Diamond, UK Gilt and European Inflation Strategist Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4129745-0for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this episode of At Any Rate, we say goodbye to negative-yielding debt, which has declined rapidly to just $5.9trn from a peak of $17.2trn in Q1/2020, with Japan now accounting for 78% of the remaining stock. Structural forces pointing to higher real yields, greater macro volatility and faster moving business cycles. Much higher US inflation volatility could easily make inflation average 3-4% over the next decade. A traditional 60/40 equity-bond allocation by our estimates prices in ~5% pa return the next decade, up from 3% at the end of 2021, as the market repricing year-to-date has cheapened US bonds and equities, and raised our 10-year out expected returns by 2% pa relative to end-2021. We favor assets where income can rise more with inflation, and where asset prices fall less, favoring Health Care and Financials, EM FX, Commodities (ex-Gold) and market-neutral hedge funds. Commodity-linked assets provide an effective hedge against the risk of a persistent rise in inflation, including livestock, industrial metals, and energy futures with Energy stocks favored over the short run and Global Utility stocks over the long run. Speakers Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research Jan Loeys, Head of Long-term Strategy Alex Wise, Long-term Strategy Preetham Nanda, Global Index Research Peter McCrory, US Economic Research This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.