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Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to be talking about why every 18 years on average, investors lose half of their money. As we kind of wrap up 2019 and we start getting towards 2020, a brand-new decade, I think it’s important that we just remind ourselves of just how volatile markets can be moving forward in the future and how good we’ve really had it over the last 13 years as far as volatility, market shocks and black swans are concerned. We really haven’t had any major market movements in the last 13 years for US markets and that is a rare thing. And so, that would lead me to believe that in the future, potentially even the near future, the next couple of years, two years, three years or so, we’re going to have a significant move in the market in one fashion or another. And so, I want to revisit some of the things that we talked about actually in our weekly podcast show number 15 which is a really, r...
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to be answering the question, “How is the CBOE VIX calculated?” The VIX is actually a measure of 30-day expected volatility for the S&P 500. You could basically say that the VIX is a gauge for judging the implied or the expected movement in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. And so, what they do is they have a bunch of formulas and ways that they do it which they have on their site, but it basically boils down to looking at at the money and out of the money puts and calls that are more than 23 days from expiration and less than 37 days from expiration for the SPX. And so, what they do is they take all of the AM settlement SPX options along with any PM settlement weekly options that expire and they basically weight this to somewhere around 30 days of expected volatility. And so, what happens is that each week, the contracts and the calculations roll to the next maturity. ...
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to answer the question, “Can I buy VIX stock?” No. You cannot buy VIX stock itself. It’s actually not anything that you can trade. It’s not an ETF. It’s not an underlying stock security. The VIX is an index, but you can trade options on it and you can trade derivative products that are based on the VIX. One of the derivative products that’s very popular to trade is VXX which is an ETN that tracks the rolling 30-day level of the VIX futures contracts. The problem with a lot of these is that sometimes they have little bit different pricing structures which you’ll want to investigate and learn more about. You can do that right here at Option Alpha as well. But you can’t buy the VIX directly. You can trade options on it. You can trade the VIX futures. You can trade VIX derivative products if you want. You just can’t go out and buy VIX itself. Hopefully this helps out....
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to answer the question, “Why is back-testing important?” I actually get a lot of pushback on this and I think that many people look at back-testing as irrelevant and I think that back-testing has a lot of relevance if you use it correctly. Sure, back-testing is not perfect in the sense that a perfect back-test is not going to be the perfect expectation of what we should expect moving forward in the future. Obviously, what happened historically is not going to happen the same way in the future. We should all know this. This is a rational logical thought process that we should follow. But a lot of people think that when we say that something is going to back-test and win 70% of the time that it will exactly win 70% of the time in the future. We know this is not the case, that the future is still out there, it is unknowable, it is unpredictable, but for me, back-testing giv...
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to be talking about a very hot topic which is, “Do you allocate everything now in lump sum or do you allocate over time if you’re just getting started in investing?” The good news here is that I think that a lot of data and research has already been done on this and in particular, Vanguard did a bunch of research on this which you can find online on Vanguard’s website that has the performance of lump sum investing versus some deviation of dollar cost averaging or systematic investing in the future, basically this idea that if you have this lump sum of cash that you’re going to invest in the market, do you do it all just now and throw it into a diversified portfolio or however you build your portfolio with options or do you dollar cost average into this over time and start to average down in the market or wait for a market fall or a better entry? And what they found an...
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to answer the question, “Is VIX actually implied volatility?” The simple answer to this question is yes, it’s implied volatility, but only for the S&P 500. The VIX itself is basically derived off of the expected future S&P 500 move and the S&P 500 index options over the next 30 days. You could look at VIX as actually the implied volatility reading on the S&P 500. Now, people use the VIX as a broad barometer for market fear or market volatility because the S&P 500 ends up being one of the benchmarks that everyone uses. As a result, when we talk about having high general market volatility, we’re usually referring to either a high or low VIX level as an indication of where implied volatility is in the market. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let us know and until next time, happy trading.
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to answer the question, “What makes a stock volatile?” The simple answer to this question is just changes in expectation and when changes and expectation are not in alignment with what people had thought previously, that’s what causes stocks to become volatile. If you really think about how stocks get really volatile particularly around earnings events, it’s only driven by the fact that we have new information that changes our future expectation of where the stock is going to go. And so, if that new information is really good for example for a stock and people have assumed that the stock was going to have a bad year and it turns out, the stock might have a good year, then we see a dramatic change in the stock’s price. We have lots of volatility as market participants re-price the stock into a new territory. The same thing happens in reverse. If a stock’s having a rea...
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to answer the question, “What is implied volatility rank or what’s commonly referred to as IVR?” IVR is way for us to normalize implied volatility readings across different ticker symbols and ETFs to get basically an apples to apples comparison. When we are looking at a trade and we are searching for and scanning for high implied volatility setups, it’s not enough in our particular case to search just for the highest implied volatility securities because high implied volatility for one security could be low implied volatility for another. If I told you that a security’s implied volatility reading was 30%, that has no context whatsoever if I didn’t tell you where 30% laid in its historical range. For a company like Tesla, 30% implied volatility might be insanely low. For a company like ExxonMobil or GE, 30% implied volatility might be insanely high. What we do is we o...
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to answer the question, “Is TD Ameritrade’s Thinkorswim free?” The short answer is that yes, the platform is free to investors and traders. However, if you do want to have options trading privileges and get the ability to trade on margin, usually, they require a $2,000 deposit. Now, this is the time of this recording, so it may be different in the future and always check TD Ameritrade’s page and their website to see if that deposit requirement has been lowered or increased in the future. But the platform itself is free. They don’t charge any platform fees. As long as you’re a customer and you have a funded account, you can actually start trading and using the platform. I think it’s a great platform not only because I’ve used it for the last 10 plus years, but also because I truly think it’s one of the better platforms out there. Not every broker platform is perfec...