3. The Stock Market for Retirement
3.退休股票市場

in this episode, Michael explainswhy the market will return the best amount to you. Risk adjusted over thelongterm. He also discusses how to manage risks over the course of a retirementwindow. And the reason investment is a proactive exercise. Even after youretire, you have to invest in the market for retirement.
在這一集中，邁克爾解釋了為什麼市場會給你最好的回報。長期風險調整。他還討論了如何在退休窗口期間管理風險。而投資之所以是一種積極主動的做法。即使你退休了，你也必須投資於退休市場。

Because historically speaking and wehave to go off history. Cause that's all we have. The market will return thebest amount to you. Risk adjusted over the long run. So you can own a ustreasury, which is backed by the government. And that's the equivalent of whatwe call the risk-free rate in the economic world.
因為從歷史的角度來說，我們必須摒棄歷史。因為我們只有這些了。市場會給你最好的回報。長期風險調整。所以你可以擁有一個由政府支持的美國財政部。這相當於我們所說的經濟世界中的無風險利率。

So the price of something is basedoff that free. Rate of return, which is almost zero right now, but at the endof the day, if your retirement is going to last more than a couple of years,which I imagine every once or chairman will, it could last 30, 40, 50 years,even if you're lucky enough, you need to make sure that not only is your moneycovering the cost of your retirement, but it's growing to adjust for the futurecost of your retirement.
所以價格是基於免費的。回報率，現在幾乎是零，但歸根結底，如果你的退休時間要超過幾年，我想每一次或主席都會，它可能會持續30年、40年、50年，即使你夠幸運，你需要確保你的錢不僅能支付你退休的費用，但它正在增長，以適應未來退休的成本。

So in theory, if you are 70 and youretire and you think you're going to live to 90, you have a 20 year window. Youhave to look at that amount of time in different segments. The first three tofive years, you probably are going to play close to the chest, and you're notgoing to take too much risk on that capital.
所以從理論上講，如果你70歲退休了，你認為你能活到90歲，你有20年的時間窗口。你必須在不同的時間段觀察這些時間。前三到五年，你可能會打得很緊，而且你不會在這筆資金上冒太大的風險。

You don't want too much volatility,but then that next window of five to 10 years, You can take a little more riskand then going out even further 15 to 20 years, that's all equities because thevolatility there is to your favor, to your benefit. You need that money to growbecause inflation adjusted your lifestyle is going to get more expensive.
你不想要太多的波動，但是接下來的5到10年的時間窗口，你可以承擔更多的風險，然后再出去15到20年，這都是股票，因為波動對你有利，對你有利。你需要這些錢來增長，因為通貨膨脹調整了你的生活方式會變得更加昂貴。

Even if you wind down and you needto make sure that your money is growing on the backend to afford that lifestyleand dignity you deserve. So I asked people sometimes if you had a grandchildthat was born today and this money was for college and you know, it's 18 yearwindow, how would you invest it?
即使你的生活越來越緊張，你需要確保你的錢在后臺不斷增長，以支付你應得的生活方式和尊嚴。所以我有時會問别人，如果你有一個今天出生的孫子，這筆錢是用來上大學的，你知道，這是18年的窗口期，你會怎麼投資？

And the academic answer is you putit all in equities, regardless of where the market is today, because you have18 years of investment horizon to let that money grow and a lot's going tohappen in that time period. It's going to go up. It's going to go down, buthistory tells you with almost. A hundred percent confidence.
學術上的答案是，你把所有的投資都放在股票上，不管今天的市場在哪里，因為你有18年的投資期限讓這些錢增長，而且在這段時間里會發生很多事情。它會漲的。它將要消失，但歷史告訴你的是幾乎。百分之百的自信。

It will be higher than it is today.So I stayed the same thing to someone who's 70 is retiring 18 years from now.You're 88. You still need that growth. Why would you stay so conservative? Andthen you have to look at interest rates and what expected rates of return are.And you have to be realistic. You have to be rational and realistic andunderstand that you have to take some kind of risk and volatility.
它將比今天更高。所以我對一個70歲，18年后即將退休的人保持著同樣的態度。你88歲了。你仍然需要這種成長。你為什麼這麼保守？然后你要看利率和預期回報率。你必須實事求是。你必須理性和現實，明白你必須承擔某種風險和波動。

To get that extra bump that you'regoing to require later on in life. It's not a set it and forget it. It's not 20years ago where you create what we call bond ladder, where you just go out andyou buy municipal bonds and you buy them every year, maturing each year. And asthey mature, you buy a new one and think of it like an escalator.
為了得到你以后生活中需要的額外的碰撞。這不是一套，算了吧。這不是20年前，你創造了我們稱之為債券階梯的地方，你出去買市政債券，然后每年購買，每年到期。當它們成熟的時候，你會買一個新的，然后把它想象成一個自動扶梯。

You just kind of slowly go up theescalator. It doesn't work like that right now. The environment's verydifferent. So you have to be a lot more mindful. And thoughtful about thatapproach because the worst thing you can do is sit and do nothing because 15years from now, you're going to pay a really, really bad price.
你只是慢慢地上了自動扶梯。現在不是這樣的。環境很不一樣。所以你得多留心。對這種方法要深思熟慮，因為你能做的最糟糕的事就是無所事事，因為15年后，你將付出非常非常非常糟糕的代價。

And you're not going to have anypurchasing power or earning power to go back out and create new wealth. Tooffset it.
你也不會有任何購買力或賺錢的能力回去創造新的財富。來抵消它。

I'm not here to tell you that growthor value is better than the other. I, I'm not smart enough to make thatdecision. And there are a lot of extremely smart people who have been on thewrong side for the last 20 years of that trade. I can tell you that one of themain pillars of how we invest for clients is that we believe.
我不是來告訴你增長或價值比其他更好。一、我不夠聰明，不能做那個決定。在過去的20年里，有很多非常聰明的人一直站在錯誤的一邊。我可以告訴你，我們為客戶投資的主要支柱之一就是我們相信。

That we should invest in companiesthat are run soundly that have strong balance sheets that generate a profitbecause there's a good or service someone's willing to pay for that doesn'tmean there aren't components of a portfolio that fall out of that. But the coreof the portfolio is high quality businesses that generate profits.
我們應該投資於那些經營良好、資產負債表強勁、能夠產生利潤的公司，因為有人願意為某項商品或服務買單，但這並不意味著投資組合中没有不屬於這一部分的組成部分。但投資組合的核心是創造利潤的高質量企業。

So whether that means that theprofit is through a company, that's a tech company that. Has strong earningspotential for the next 30 years or it's the company down the street that makesa widget, we're less concerned about what kind of company, whether it's growthor value. We're more concerned about the fundamentals and the forward-lookingpotential of those companies.
所以這是否意味著利潤是通過一家公司，那就是一家科技公司。在未來30年有著強勁的盈利潛力，或者說是這條街上的公司制造了一個小部件，我們不太關心什麼樣的公司，無論是增長還是價值。我們更關心這些公司的基本面和前瞻性潛力。

And I should be clear that we don'tindividually trade stocks. We think that's a really tough game and I'll giveyou the mathematical reason. The best hitter of all time, didn't even bat 400.That means six out of 10 times that batter failed. Let's pretend that thelistener is the best investor in the history of the world and is correct, 50%of the time mathematically, you have to be right on both the buy and the sell,right.
我應該清楚，我們不單獨交易股票。我們認為這是一場非常艱難的比賽，我會給你一個數學上的理由。史上最好的擊球手，連400杆都没打。這意味著擊球手10次中有6次失敗。讓我們假設聽眾是世界歷史上最好的投資者，並且是正確的，50%的時間數學上，你必須在買入和賣出上都是正確的，對吧。

Buying the stock, and then when tosell it, if you're right, 50% of the time. Point five times 0.5 equals 0.25.That means you're wrong. 75% of the time, even the best investor. Who's right.Half the time is mathematically only going to be right. One quarter of thetime. Those are not odds. I want to take that doesn't mean that you just set itand forget it in an index.
買股票，然后什麼時候賣，如果你是對的，50%的時間。點5乘以0.5等於0.25。那意味著你錯了。75%的時候，即使是最好的投資者。誰是對的。一半的時間在數學上是正確的。四分之一的時間。這不是賠率。我想說的是，這並不意味著你只需要設置它，然后把它忘在索引中。

There are definitely other savvyways and different executions that you should have. But you also don't want tojust buy one stock and hope and pray that you hit the home run.
當然，你應該有其他明智的方法和不同的執行方式。但你也不想只買一只股票，然后祈禱自己能成功。