Natasha Kaneva discusses J.P. Morgan’s baseline view on global oil markets and associated risks. We expect Russian exports will adjust towards other buyers without a serious disruption to its production. This, combined with the 1.2 mbd monthly drawdown of global strategic petroleum reserves and demand beginning to falter amid record-high oil product prices are sufficient to prompt a fragile balance and stabilize the global oil price in the low $100s in 2H22 and high $90s in 2023. Macro risks are becoming more two-sided. A 3 mbd retaliatory reduction in Russian oil exports is a credible threat and if realized will drive Brent crude oil prices to roughly $190/bbl. On the other hand, the impact of substantially lower demand growth under recessionary scenarios would see Brent crude oil price averaging around $90/bbl under a mild recession and $78/bbl under a scenario of a more severe downturn. Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research This podcast was recorde...