The world is becoming more analytical. Given the deluge of data available and the rapid pace of change across all facets of our lives, good decision-making – that is, the ability to be analytical in your approach to making choices – is critical to our professional survival and happiness. We make better decisions when we keep in mind the costs, benefits, and consequences of what we decide. In this masterclass, Lawrence H. Summers, an expert in using decision-making models, walks you through a detailed process for deciding wisely and well.
世界变得越来越具有分析性。鉴于可获得的大量数据以及我们生活各个方面的快速变化步伐，良好的决策能力（即在做出选择的过程中具有分析能力）对于我们的职业生存和幸福至关重要。当我们牢记决定的成本，收益和后果时，我们会做出更好的决策。在这个大师班中，使用决策模型的专家劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence H. Summers）将引导您完成详细的过程，以明智，明智地进行决策。
- 经济学家、前美国财政部长
Making Complex Decisions: A Scientific Method, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic CouncilIn this lesson, Lawrence Summers walks you through a scientific method for making complex decisions. The key, he argues, is to think in terms of alternatives.本节课中，我们邀请到了白宫国家经济委员会前主任劳伦斯·萨默斯。劳伦斯将向我们介绍一种科学的方法，帮助我们做出复杂决定。他认为，关键要多想几个Plan B，并综合考虑这些替代方案的可行性。
Making Complex Decisions: A Scientific Method, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic CouncilIn this lesson, Lawrence Summers walks you through a scientific method for making complex decisions. The key, he argues, is to think in terms of alternatives.本节课中，我们邀请到了白宫国家经济委员会前主任劳伦斯·萨默斯。劳伦斯将向我们介绍一种科学的方法，帮助我们做出复杂决定。他认为，关键要多想几个Plan B，并综合考虑这些替代方案的可行性。
The world is becoming more analytical. Given the deluge of data available and the rapid pace of change across all facets of our lives, good decision-making – that is, the ability to be analytical in your approach to making choices – is critical. In this lesson, Economist Lawrence Summers explores why deciding wisely is essential to leading a good life. By the end of it, you’ll have a deeper understanding of what Summers believes to be the single greatest pitfall to analytical thinking – and its antidote.当今世界，分析正变得越来越不可或缺。我们每天都被海量数据包围着，生活的各个方面也在快速变化，在这种情况下，做出明智决策，或者说在决策的过程中进行分析的能力至关重要。在本节课中，身为经济学家的劳伦斯·萨默斯提到了一个问题，那就是为什么明智决定对于过上美好的生活至关重要。
The world is becoming more analytical. Given the deluge of data available and the rapid pace of change across all facets of our lives, good decision-making – that is, the ability to be analytical in your approach to making choices – is critical. In this lesson, Economist Lawrence Summers explores why deciding wisely is essential to leading a good life. By the end of it, you’ll have a deeper understanding of what Summers believes to be the single greatest pitfall to analytical thinking – and its antidote.当今世界，分析正变得越来越不可或缺。我们每天都被海量数据包围着，生活的各个方面也在快速变化，在这种情况下，做出明智决策，或者说在决策的过程中进行分析的能力至关重要。在本节课中，身为经济学家的劳伦斯·萨默斯提到了一个问题，那就是为什么明智决定对于过上美好的生活至关重要。
Making Complex Decisions: Evaluation, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic Council In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explains why looking back is the best way to learn to make better decisions and why simplistic thinking about the efficacy of one’s decision-making prevents progress.在本节课中，劳伦斯·萨默斯将告诉我们，为什么回望过去是做出更好决定的最佳方式，以及为什么在评判一个人的决策效率时，简单思维会阻碍进步。
Making Complex Decisions: Evaluation, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic Council In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explains why looking back is the best way to learn to make better decisions and why simplistic thinking about the efficacy of one’s decision-making prevents progress.在本节课中，劳伦斯·萨默斯将告诉我们，为什么回望过去是做出更好决定的最佳方式，以及为什么在评判一个人的决策效率时，简单思维会阻碍进步。
In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explores why it’s critical to have a rational orientation to any problem. Many problems stem from having an unclear understanding of the situation at hand, Summers argues. Therefore, you must begin by defining the problem in the clearest terms possible and then ground yourself in the knowledge of your field.决策过程中，首先对问题有一个合理的定位至关重要。萨默斯认为，很多问题会产生都是因为人们对当下的情况没有一个清晰的了解。所以，解决问题的第一步，就是要以一种尽可能清晰的方式来明确这个问题，然后使用你的专业知识来解决这个问题。
In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explores why it’s critical to have a rational orientation to any problem. Many problems stem from having an unclear understanding of the situation at hand, Summers argues. Therefore, you must begin by defining the problem in the clearest terms possible and then ground yourself in the knowledge of your field.决策过程中，首先对问题有一个合理的定位至关重要。萨默斯认为，很多问题会产生都是因为人们对当下的情况没有一个清晰的了解。所以，解决问题的第一步，就是要以一种尽可能清晰的方式来明确这个问题，然后使用你的专业知识来解决这个问题。
In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explores two guiding principles for making and then implementing your final decision. The key is to avoid overplaying or underplaying your strategy. Learn how to think at the margin, like an economist.决策过程与实施过程中有两条指导原则：第一，不要犯不可逆的错误；第二，以一种校准的方式来思考问题。关键点就是，既不要过度依赖你的策略，也不要思考的不周全。要学会像经济学家一样思考边际这个概念。
In this lesson, Lawrence Summers explores two guiding principles for making and then implementing your final decision. The key is to avoid overplaying or underplaying your strategy. Learn how to think at the margin, like an economist.决策过程与实施过程中有两条指导原则：第一，不要犯不可逆的错误；第二，以一种校准的方式来思考问题。关键点就是，既不要过度依赖你的策略，也不要思考的不周全。要学会像经济学家一样思考边际这个概念。
Making Complex Decisions: Special Exigencies, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic Council今天我们将继续和著名经济学家劳伦斯·萨默斯进行讨论。今天的课程中，萨默斯将会告诉我们决策过程中采取科学系统的方法和保持清醒的头脑的重要性。有一些情况下，需要我们采取一些非科学的方法来进行决策，例如招聘依靠的就是直觉和判断力，但是在这种情况下，也要对自己的直觉和判断有一定的把控。萨默斯认为，决策过程中，要尽可能地采取科学系统的方法。此外，应该保持一个清醒的头脑，不要将确信的东西和希望成为现实的东西混为一谈。
Making Complex Decisions: Special Exigencies, with Lawrence Summers, Former Director, White House United States National Economic Counci今天我们将继续和著名经济学家劳伦斯·萨默斯进行讨论。今天的课程中，萨默斯将会告诉我们决策过程中采取科学系统的方法和保持清醒的头脑的重要性。有一些情况下，需要我们采取一些非科学的方法来进行决策，例如招聘依靠的就是直觉和判断力，但是在这种情况下，也要对自己的直觉和判断有一定的把控。萨默斯认为，决策过程中，要尽可能地采取科学系统的方法。此外，应该保持一个清醒的头脑，不要将确信的东西和希望成为现实的东西混为一谈。