2. How toBuild a Portfolio
2.如何建立投資組合

In this episode,Josh explains what makes up a portfolio and how to build portfolios thatreflect what the money will be used for. And importantly, when it will be usedby the investor,
在這一集里，喬希解釋了投資組合的組成，以及如何建立反映資金用途的投資組合。重要的是，當投資者使用它時，

folio is a fancyway of saying they have a collection of different stocks and bonds that they'reinvested in. And a portfolio could include real estate. It can includecommodities. It could be an individual stocks. It could be in ETFs or mutualfunds, which are the wrappers around stocks. It can really include anything,even art, even these days, wine Bitcoin, any investible asset can be a part ofyour portfolio.
folio是一種很花哨的說法，用來表示他們投資的是不同的股票和債券。投資組合可以包括房地產。它可以包括商品。可能是個股。它可以是ETF或共同基金，它們是股票的包裝物。它真的可以包括任何東西，甚至藝術品，甚至在現在，葡萄酒比特幣，任何可投資資產都可以成為你投資組合的一部分。

Broadlyspeaking, the majority of investors have a portfolio that is in a 401k accountthat they've set up at their employer. This is how most people invest or anIRA, and they own mutual funds for the most part or exchange traded funds. Thishas become very popular because by owning many stocks, you're reducing the riskthat any one particular stock.
一般來說，大多數投資者的投資組合都是在他們雇主開立的401k賬戶中。這是大多數人投資或個人退休帳戶的方式，他們擁有大部分共同基金或交易所交易基金。這已經變得非常流行，因為擁有很多股票，你就可以降低任何一只股票的風險。

That goes tozero can really hurt you because you've got all those other stocks that cancontinue on. Even if one or two of them stumble. Now again, remember what Isaid about risk and reward being linked. So that manages
這個數字變成零真的會傷害你，因為你還有其他所有的股票可以繼續。即使有一兩個絆倒了。現在，請記住我說過的風險和回報是聯系在一起的。這樣就可以了

your riskdiversification within a portfolio, but it lowers your potential reward becauseif you have one huge winner stock like Netflix, but you only have 2% of yourmoney in it because the other 98% of your money, isn't all these other stocks.
你的風險分散在一個投資組合中，但它降低了你潛在的回報，因為如果你有一個巨大的贏家股票，像Netflix，但你只有2%的錢，因為你的其他98%的錢，不是所有其他股票。

Then your upsideon Netflix, won't be as high as if you put all your money into it. So again,this gets back to that trade off of diversification helps you manage risk. Itdoes not enhance the potential reward. And in many cases you can
那麼你在Netflix上的優勢，就不會像你把所有的錢都投進去那樣高。所以，這又回到了多元化的權衡上，這有助於你管理風險。它不會增加潛在的回報。在很多情況下你可以

dilute it.
稀釋它。

I think Apple'sgreat. Don't you think everyone else also agrees that it's great. You thinkyou're the first to discover that Apple is a great company? Right. It's a $2trillion market cap right now. It's the largest stock in the world. It'sactually the largest stock in the history of the world. So you having thisinsight that I love Apple products has no meaning at all in terms of theprospective returns for the stock.
我覺得蘋果很棒。你不認為其他人也認為這很好嗎。你認為你是第一個發現蘋果是一家偉大公司的人？正確的。現在的市值是2萬億美元。它是世界上最大的股票。它實際上是世界歷史上最大的股票。所以你認為我喜歡蘋果的產品，這對股票的預期回報率毫無意義。

Right? So one ofthe things about investing that people need to think about is that it's notwhat your opinion is on the company. That's going to decide what the stock'sgoing to do. It's the opinions of everyone else. Right. There's an economistnamed Keynes who came up with this concept of the stock market, being like abeauty pageant, a newspaper beauty pageant, and the way he
對嗎？因此，人們需要考慮的一個問題是，這不是你對公司的看法。這將決定股票的走勢。這是别人的意見。正確的。有一個叫凱恩斯的經濟學家，他提出了股票市場的概念，就像一個選美比賽，一個報紙選美比賽，他

explains it isyou're not trying to figure out which of the three models is the mostbeautiful.
解釋說這是因為你不想弄清楚這三個模特中哪一個最漂亮。

You're trying tofigure out which of the three models the rest of the crowd will think is themost beautiful in their voting. That's the stock market is now the differencebetween betting on a stock versus betting on a game when the NFL is on, onSunday. And you see the list of all the games that are going to be played, thenewspaper actually publishes the spreads.
你在試圖找出三個模特中，其他人會認為哪一個最漂亮。這就是股票市場現在的區别是賭股票和賭一場比賽，當NFL在星期天。你可以看到所有將要玩的遊戲的列表，報紙實際上公布了這些遊戲的傳播。

They give youthe odds. They tell you specifically, this is what the crowd's odds are for theBengals to beat the Browns on Thursday night in the stock market, those oddsare not published. So. We're not just betting on that. Apple is a good companywe're betting on will. More people agree that Apple is a better company later,hence driving the stock higher.
他們給你機會。他們明確地告訴你，這就是孟加拉人週四晚上在股市上擊敗布朗一家的幾率，這些幾率没有公布。所以。我們不只是在打賭。蘋果是個好公司，我們把賭注押在意志上。越來越多的人認為蘋果是一家更好的公司，因此推高了股價。

And that is atotally different game. So those types of observations. And I think when mostpeople approach the stock market, they think that that's what they're supposedto do is say Pepsi is bad. Coke is good. It's you really have to put yourselfin the mindset of understanding that there are hundreds of millions of otherinvestors and their opinions are what going to matter more so than just yourown
這是完全不同的遊戲。所以這些類型的觀察。我認為當大多數人接近股市時，他們認為他們應該說百事可樂不好。可樂是好東西。你真的要把自己放在這樣一種心態中去理解，還有數以億計的其他投資者，他們的意見比你自己的意見更重要

So I think it'simportant to bring up the fact that we build portfolios based on financialplans and all of our clients have different financial plans. And as a result,there are no two client portfolios that look exactly the same. How could they,for some investors that we work with they're in their seventies and they areactively drawing down the money that they've saved the last five decades
所以我認為重要的是要提出這樣一個事實：我們根據財務計劃建立投資組合，而且我們所有的客戶都有不同的財務計劃。因此，没有兩個客戶的投資組合看起來完全一樣。他們怎麼可能，對我們合作的一些投資者來說，他們已經70多歲了，他們正在積極地提取過去50年里攢下的錢呢

and living on it.
並以此為生。

That's going tobe a very different portfolio than a client that is 35 years old and is stillin the accumulation phase and still making a lot of money, putting a lot ofmoney away and focusing on maybe buying a bigger house in 10 years, as opposedto living on the money they've accumulated today. So every
這將是一個非常不同的投資組合，一個35歲的客戶，仍然處於積累階段，仍然賺很多錢，存了很多錢，專注於10年后可能買一個更大的房子，而不是靠他們今天積累的錢生活。所以每

portfolio we build.
我們建立的投資組合。

We'll have stocks, we'll have bonds. We'll use a lot of fundsbecause it's a
我們有股票，有債券。我們會用很多資金因為

very efficientway to get the medic exposure. In some cases we'll use individual positions andwe'll even behave differently with how we buy and sell those assets for thoseclients, depending on. Different things like their risk tolerance, their timehorizon.
非常有效的方法來獲得醫療曝光。在某些情況下，我們會使用個别的頭寸，我們甚至會在為這些客戶買賣資產時采取不同的行為，具體取決於。不同的東西，比如他們的風險承受能力，他們的時間範圍。

So all of ourportfolios are custom built for each investor that we work with. And I thinkeveryone should have a portfolio that reflects what they're actually going tobe using the money for.
因此，我們所有的投資組合都是為我們合作的每個投資者定制的。我認為每個人都應該有一個投資組合，反映出他們將把錢用於什麼目的。

The primarydeterminant of building a portfolio really should be when the funds might beused. And of course people's plans in life change, but you should have someapproximation of when, because that's going to dictate how much risk you'reable to take. Right? When do I need this money? Can I survive a 50% draw downin the last 20 years, we've had two bear markets that have dropped the overallstock market by 50%.
建立投資組合的首要決定因素實際上應該是資金何時可以使用。當然，人們的生活計劃也會改變，但你應該對什麼時候改變有個大概的估計，因為這將決定你能承受多大的風險。對嗎？我什麼時候需要這筆錢？我能不能在過去20年50%的下跌中幸存下來，我們經歷過兩次熊市，使整個股市下跌了50%。

So, this issomething that people should understand is entirely possible. If you say to me,Josh, I might need the money in three years. When I retire, then the answer isyou cannot withstand a 50% sell-off in the stock market within that threeyears, because then you have to start liquidating it to fund your lifestylewhen it may be half the level it is today.
所以，人們應該明白這是完全可能的。如果你對我說，喬希，三年后我可能需要這筆錢。當我退休后，答案是你無法承受三年內股市50%的拋售，因為那時你必須開始變現，為你的生活方式提供資金，而那時的生活水平可能只有今天的一半。

So you have verylow risk tolerance. Age is a factor, but it's really about when the money willbe used. .
所以你的風險承受能力很低。年齡是一個因素，但實際上是錢什麼時候用。