4.Portfolio Mistakes
4.投資組合錯誤

in this episode,Josh shares some of the common mistakes to avoid with your money and how it'seasiest a young person to not recognize your greatest asset. I think I mademost of the big mistakes when I was younger, which I think is how it should beand mistakes both with my own money and with client money, nothingcatastrophic, but just not knowing when you have too much of a good thing,chasing markets, when you feel like you're missing out on something thateveryone's making a ton of money, concentration risk, meaning having too muchof one particular type of investment or one specific company stock, that's abig one for people.
在這一集里，喬希和大家分享了一些在花錢時要避免的常見錯誤，以及年輕人如何最容易不認識到你最大的資產。我想我年輕的時候犯了很多大錯，我認為應該是這樣，我自己的錢和客戶的錢都犯了錯誤，没有什麼災難性的，只是不知道什麼時候你有太多的好東西，追逐市場，當你覺得自己錯過了一些大家都賺了一大筆錢的東西，集中風險，意味著有太多的一種特定類型的投資或一種特定的公司股票，這對人們來說是一個很大的風險。

I thinksometimes being too cautious can be a really big mistake if you're in your twentiesand you're shifting into cash every time you hear some horrible headline aboutterrorism or Donald Trump or whatever, if you're doing that kind of thing, youforgetting the fact that you're missing out on the whole benefit of beingyoung, because being young is better than being smart.
我認為有時候過於謹慎可能是一個很大的錯誤，如果你在二十幾歲的時候，每次聽到關於恐怖主義或唐納德·特朗普之類的可怕的頭條，你就會把錢變成現金，如果你在做這種事情，你忘了你錯過了年輕的全部好處，因為年輕總比聰明強。

The greatestasset you could have in the stock market is not wisdom. Believe me it's timebecause compounding is magical and compounding allows you to double your moneyand double it again. Double it again, but it won't work if you're constantlybuying and selling, or if you stop investing. You're literally taking thegreatest strength that you you have and cutting it off.
你在股票市場上所能擁有的最大資產不是智慧。相信我，是時候復利了，因為復利是神奇的，復利可以讓你的錢翻一番，再翻一番。再翻一番，但如果你不停地買賣，或者你停止投資，它就行不通了。你真的在用你最大的力量切斷它。

So I try toemphasize that when I talk to young investors, what the market does from oneday to the next has absolutely no bearing on you. If your time horizon is 50years not. And if anything, if you're a young person in the accumulation phaseof your life, and you're putting money into a retirement account that you can'ttouch it anyway.
所以我要強調的是，當我和年輕投資者交談時，市場從一天到另一天的走勢與你完全無關。如果你的時間跨度是50年就不是了。如果你是一個正處於人生積累階段的年輕人，你把錢存進了一個你無論如何都碰不到的退休賬戶。

Without taxconsequences. Why on earth would you be rooting for new alltime highs in thestock market? Why would that be good for you? It's terrible for you. It's goodfor your parents. What's good for you is a 10 year bear market where stocks donothing, but go down because you spend those 10 years earning money, puttingsavings into the market and buying stocks at lower and lower and lower andlower prices.
没有稅務后果。你究竟為什麼要為股市的歷史新高而歡呼呢？為什麼這對你有好處？這對你來說太可怕了。這對你父母有好處。對你有利的是一個10年的熊市，股票什麼都不做，但下跌是因為你花了10年時間賺錢，把儲蓄投入市場，以越來越低的價格購買股票。

And then whenthings do turn around, You're going to be that much better off. So you're ayoung person and you're clapping because stocks are making all time highs. Ireally don't understand what you're thinking. Why would you want to buy high?So. I can have a 30 year old client and a 70 year old client.
當事情真的好轉時，你的生活會好得多。所以你是一個年輕人，你鼓掌是因為股票創歷史新高。我真的不明白你在想什麼。你為什麼要買高價？所以。我可以有一個30歲的客戶和一個70歲的客戶。

And both of themare rooting for a different outcome based on where they are in life and whetherthey're accumulating or decumulating, meaning living on those assets. And Ithink that's a really, really important concept that most people haven'tthought enough about. We've been conditioned to think up.
他們兩個都在尋求一個不同的結果，基於他們在生活中所處的位置以及他們是在積累還是在減少，這意味著要依靠這些資產生活。我認為這是一個非常非常重要的概念，大多數人還没有充分考慮。我們習慣於思考。

Stocks are good and downstocks are bad. It depends.
股票是好的，下跌的股票是壞的。要看情況而定。

From 2000 to2009 it's 10 year period, the S and P 500 went nowhere, even includingdividends in a 0% return. Now with a diversified portfolio. Wasn't so terrible.Real estate investment trusts went up, which is a way to invest in real estate.On the stock market. Bonds went up small cap stocks went up internationalstocks in Europe, went up emerging market stocks like China and Japan went up.
從2000年到2009年的10年時間里，標普500指數一無所獲，甚至包括0%回報率的股息。現在有了多元化的投資組合。没那麼可怕。房地產投資信托興起，這是一種投資房地產的方式。在股票市場上。債券漲了，小盤股漲了，歐洲的國際股也漲了，像中國和日本這樣的新興市場股票也漲了。

So if you hadjust us stocks in a broadly diversified index, like an S and P 500 in that 10year period. That was one of the worst ten-year periods of all time. You tookoff that risk. You had two mega crashes down 50% by 2002 and down 50% by 2009.And you had nothing to show for all of that risk or that
因此，如果你只在一個廣泛多元化的指數中，比如10年期內的標準普爾500指數（S&p500）的話。那是有史以來最糟糕的十年之一。你没有冒這個險。在2002年和2009年，你有兩次大車禍分别下降了50%和50%。你没有什麼可以證明的

volatility.
波動。

But if you had adiversified portfolio with all of those other asset classes, as I listed, youactually made some money. So I think that that's something that you shouldexpect to see again. We will have another 10 year period where us stocks giveyou a lot of risk, but no return. Absolutely. It will happen in your lifetime.
但如果你有一個多元化的投資組合，所有其他資產類别，如我所列，你實際上賺了一些錢。所以我認為這是你應該再次看到的東西。我們還有10年的時間，美國股市給你帶來很大風險，但没有回報。當然。這將在你有生之年發生。

And so I thinkit's best to be prepared for that possibility now, rather than being surprisedby it. Once it's in progress, .
所以我認為最好現在就為這種可能性做好準備，而不是被它嚇到。一旦進行中。