3. Risk,Reward & Rebalancing
3.風險、回報與再平衡

in this episode,Josh goes over the essential factors to consider for your portfolio whenplanning your retirement nest egg. He explains which risks to take, which toavoid and suggest sensible investment strategies, such as rebalancing yourportfolios, ratio of stocks to bonds. There are other considerations like, uh,the cost of living in the part of the country that you live in. 
在本期節目中，喬希將詳細介紹在計劃退休儲蓄計劃時，投資組合需要考慮的基本因素。他解釋了應該承擔哪些風險，避免哪些風險，並提出了明智的投資策略，比如重新平衡投資組合、股票與債券的比率。還有其他的考慮因素，比如，呃，你居住的國家的生活費用在。

And the rate atwhich that cost of living is going up, longevity is going to be very caged interms of, you know, you think about retirement is almost a new invention inAmerica. In 1950, the way you retired was you literally dropped dead at youroffice. And if you didn't, they handed you a gold watch and you dropped deadsix months later, that was retirement.
而生活成本的增長速度，壽命將被限制在，你知道，你認為退休在美國幾乎是一項新發明。1950年，你退休的方式是你死在辦公室里。如果你没有，他們會給你一塊金表，六個月后你就死了，那就是退休。

Truly. There wasno such thing. All of the things that we now act as though they've beenenshrined and chiseled in stone tablets a million years ago, really were justinvented since the seventies 401k being a great example, individual retirementaccounts. Usual funds were around, but nobody really had in the excess money toinvest in them until the 1980s.
真的。没有這樣的事。我們現在所做的一切，就好像它們在一百萬年前就被刻在石碑上一樣，實際上是自70年代401k以來才發明的，這是一個很好的例子，個人退休賬戶。通常的基金還在，但直到20世紀80年代，没有人真正有多余的錢來投資這些基金。

So they werereally for rich people. Uh, so we're living much longer. If you make it to 65years old, you have a one in four shot of making it to 93. That's what theactual math says. So think about what that means. You retire at 65, whatevermoney you've made up until then that's your portfolio. That's your retirementnest egg.
所以他們真的是為有錢人準備的。呃，所以我們活得更長了。如果你能活到65歲，你就有四分之一的機會可以活到93歲。這就是實際數學所說的。所以想想這意味著什麼。你65歲退休，不管你在那之前賺了多少錢，那都是你的投資組合。那是你的退休儲蓄。

You may have tolive 30 years on that money. So can I invest that money conservatively? Nocause you're going to run out. You won't generate enough growth on that moneyto make it 30 years. If I put that into a ten-year treasury bond right now, andI say, Jared, congratulations on your retirement. You're 65. 
你可能得靠這些錢活30年。那麼我能保守地投資這些錢嗎？不，因為你會跑出去的。你不會在這些錢上產生足夠的增長來維持30年。如果我現在把它放進10年期國債里，我說，賈里德，祝賀你退休。你是65歲。

Let's liquidateyour stock portfolio and put you into the safest investment on earth. A tenureus treasury bond that treasury bond right now is yielding 70 basis points orless than three quarters of 1%. Inflation is 2%. You're losing more than halfof your purchasing power each year. When you think about it that way.
讓我們清算你的股票投資組合，把你投入地球上最安全的投資。目前收益率為70個基點或不到1%的四分之三。通貨膨脹率是2%。你每年失去一半以上的購買力。當你這樣想的時候。

So I can't giveyou a conservative portfolio just because you're retired or just because youtell me you turned 65, I'm proud of you. I hope you find lots of fun stuff todo in your retirement, but most of it's going to cost more money than you haveright now. So we have to grow your money. And that means we have to continue toassume.
所以我不能僅僅因為你退休了或者僅僅因為你告訴我你已經65歲了就給你一個保守的投資組合，我為你感到驕傲。我希望你在退休后能找到很多有趣的事情做，但大多數事情都要比你現在花更多的錢。所以我們得增加你的錢。這意味著我們必須繼續假設。

Equity markets,stock market risk. So one of the consequences of the federal reserves decisionto keep interest rates extraordinarily low for the last 10 years. Andespecially since the pandemic began, one of the consequences is people who areon a fixed income or who don't want to take a lot of risk.
股票市場，股市風險。因此，美聯儲決定在過去10年里保持極低利率的后果之一。尤其是自從流感大流行開始以來，其后果之一就是那些有固定收入或不想冒很大風險的人。

Really don't have any options. They haveto take more risk than historically they would have. Otherwise their money willnot grow in concert with their cost of living. Right? The rent goes up, priceof food goes up. So part of my job as their investment advisor is to teach themwhat the right risks are to take.
真的别無選擇。他們必須承擔比歷史上更多的風險。否則他們的錢就不會隨著生活成本的增長而增長。對嗎？房租上漲，食品價格上漲。作為他們的投資顧問，我有權教他們承擔風險。

And what therisks were not really being paid enough for which ones of those types of riskswe should avoid. And to me, it's essential that they get that advice now,because decisions that are made today in the investment markets could have awide array of ramifications decades down the road. If things aren't done right.
我們應該避免哪些風險，而這些風險並没有真正得到足夠的回報。對我來說，他們現在得到這些建議是至關重要的，因為現在在投資市場上做出的決定可能會在未來幾十年內產生廣泛的影響。如果事情做得不對。

Rebalancing isessential because it takes advantage of the fact that different stocks,different sectors, different international markets, different asset classes,move higher or lower in trends. I'll give you a really good example.
再平衡至關重要，因為它利用了不同的股票、不同的行業、不同的國際市場、不同的資產類别在趨勢上走高或走低這一事實。我給你舉個很好的例子。

Let's say you have a yearlike 2019 where the stock market goes up. 30%.
假設你有一年，比如2019年股市會上漲。30%.

So you come intoJanuary, you feel much wealthier. Let's say you have 60% of your portfolio instocks. 40% in bonds make a little bit of money in bonds, not much in the 40%of your portfolio, that's it? Bonds you made a little bit and the stock side,you made 30%. So the responsible thing to do at that point, and again, thisdoesn't require you having the stock market forecast.
所以到了一月份，你會覺得更富有。假設你有60%的投資組合是股票。40%的債券賺了一點錢在債券上，而在你投資組合的40%里賺不了多少，就這樣？債券你賺了一點，股票方面，你賺了30%。所以在這一點上要做的是負責任的事情，而且，這不需要你有股市預測。

Nobody knowswhat's going to happen, but the responsible thing to do is to say, okay, Fishpart of my portfolio, the stock part, outgrew what it used to be. I have torebalance that back to that 60% versus 40% stock to bond allocation, to beresponsible, meaning I'm not letting it ride. I'm not counting on making 30% instocks the following year and the following year.
没人知道會發生什麼，但最負責任的事是說，好吧，我投資組合中的魚部分，股票部分，已經超出了過去的水平。我必須重新平衡60%對40%的股票對債券的配置，這意味著我不會讓它順其自然。我不指望第二年和第二年能賺30%的股票。

And I'm saying, I want my portfolio. To be 6040 now it's become 72, whatever the, the ratio becomes and then just saying,okay, I'm going to chop back my exposure to stocks, ring the register, takeprofits. Thank you very much. And
我是說，我想要我的投資組合。現在是60到40，現在變成了72，不管這個比率是多少，然后說，好吧，我要削減我在股票上的敞口，打電話，獲利。非常感謝你。以及

I'm going to add thatmoney back to the bond portion and get back to 60 40.
我要把這些錢加到債券部分，然后回到6040。

Had you donethat in January of this year? And then the pandemic hits in March. You couldlook back and say, thank God I rebalanced. And I took some of that additionalequity exposure off the table. So rebalancing is kind of like a way to correctfor all of the price movement that goes on in the markets.
你是在今年一月份做的嗎？然后大流行在三月來臨。你可以回頭說，感謝上帝，我重新平衡了。我把這些額外的股權敞口從談判桌上去掉了。因此，再平衡有點像是一種糾正市場上所有價格變動的方法。

There are peoplerebalancing between stocks and bonds. People rebalancing between us stocks andinternational stocks. So you just want to decide, this is my strategy. This isthe ratio I want to be around. You don't want to rebalance every day. Becauseyou'll throttle the returns, but you want to have a specific interval that youjust decide.
有人在股票和債券之間重新平衡。人們在美國股票和國際股票之間重新平衡。所以你只要決定，這是我的策略。這就是我想要的比率。你不想每天都重新平衡。因為你會限制回報，但你想有一個你自己決定的特定時間間隔。

I'm going to doa little bit of rebalancing and bring my proportions back to where I think theyshould be based on my risk. .
我要做一點再平衡，把我的比例恢復到我認為應該基於我的風險的水平。